The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers mix it up for the second time in three weeks this Sunday.
The last time these NFC West rivals clashed in the NFL odds, San Francisco feasted on roasted Seahawk (whatever that is) on Thanksgiving Thursday, slamming Seattle 31-13 as a 7-point road favorite.
This time around, the 49ers are at home and laying double digits against a Seahawks side coming off a 10-day break following a thrilling loss at Dallas last Thursday night.
I dissect the Week 14 odds for this divisional dance and give my best NFL picks for Seahawks vs. 49ers on December 9.
Seahawks vs 49ers odds
Seahawks vs 49ers predictions
When breaking down the San Francisco 49ers with blogger Kyle Posey on the Thanksgiving edition of our “Sharp 600” podcast, he noted that wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk often trade off big games back and forth.
So, with that in mind and Samuel coming off a stellar 116-yard performance through the air in the Week 13 win over Philadelphia, it would set the table for Aiyuk to have a standout effort in Week 14.
Aiyuk finished with five catches on a team-high seven targets for just 46 yards against the Eagles and went for only 50 yards on two grabs in Week 12’s win over the Seattle Seahawks. The former first-round pick fell short of his receiving yard totals of 65.5 yards O/U in each of those outings.
However, what these two contests shared was that they both occurred away from home. Plus, if we look at Aiyuk’s production splits, he’s been a more dangerous receiver in the Bay Area.
Aiyuk has totaled 471 yards in his four home games this season, with an average of 23.5 yards per reception, versus 456 yards over seven road games, in which he averages only 15.2 yards per catch.
This home/away split very much hinges on quarterback Brock Purdy and his similar spike in passing yards when playing inside Levi’s Stadium. Purdy’s completion rate, average yards per attempt, and passer rating are significantly higher at home.
And his favorite target, by far, is Aiyuk.
The Week 14 player props have Aiyuk’s receiving total at 66.5 yards Over/Under, a mark he’s blown out of the water in three of those four homestands. Player projections for the 49ers WR range from 64 to a ceiling of 77 yards, with my number projecting closer to 70 on Sunday.
My best bet: Brandon Aiyuk Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Seahawks vs 49ers same-game parlay
Brandon Aiyuk Over 66.5 receiving yardsGeno Smith Over 8.5 rushing yards49ers moneyline
+320 at bet365
Aiyuk went for 73 yards the last time he faced the Seahawks at home and many models are calling for another 70-plus day. Meanwhile, Geno Smith had to make plays with his legs the last time he faced this Niners’ pass rush.
The market is down on the Niners against the spread, so we’ll keep it clean with San Francisco to win outright on the SGP.
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